I’ve been an entrepreneur almost all my life –
creating and marketing my own products and services. I’ve written 5 books, created several
unique training programs, consulted with Fortune 100 companies, spoken in front of
hundreds of audiences.
I’m always looking for (and often creating) the next opportunity. When I think of one,
or one finds me, I usually get excited – my natural optimism kicks in, and I’m sure this
next one is going to be BIG!
Does this sound familiar? As entrepreneurs, we’re always attracted to the new, the exciting,
the shiny. But do we sometimes fail to analyze the probabilities?
Item: A few weeks ago the biggest book publisher in Saudi Arabia asked to see a copy of my book, to explore whether to publish it throughout the Middle East
Item: I was invited to speak at a big conference in Calif, whose attendees would be C-level
executives
Item: A High level executive from a big tech company Invited me to join her Connections on Linked In.
Of course, I got excited about each of these. I put a few hours into researching the Saudi publishing company, I pored over the attendee list of the California conference; I Googled the executive and her company to learn more about potential opportunities for my company there.
The outcomes:
– I rushed the book to the Saudi publisher; weeks later, I hadn’t heard from them, and my
agent says they’ll probably “pass” on my book
– The big conference in California was indeed going to happen, but the “invitation” turned out
to be a clever marketing strategy, trying to get small vendor companies like mine to pay
for the opportunity to attend (and not necessarily speak)
– The C-level executive at the high tech company was on her way out, and had contacted me with the idea that I might be
able to give her contacts for her job search.
The lesson? Take a cold, hard look at what you think might be the next big “score”
or opportunity for you – ask yourself: what are the odds of this happening?
I often have difficulty with this – I seize on the idea of an opportunity, usually (maybe not even consciously) give it a 90% chance of
bearing fruit, i.e. profit, and then find myself disappointed, indeed devastated, when it doesn’t happen. This may be the case for
you, too, fellow entrepreneurs.
How much saner my life would have been had I done a realistic risk/reward analysis of
each possibility? (or maybe consulted with a trusted friend or colleague to help me with this)
One friend, says this “I now use the ‘earn my enthusiasm’ method. I start with maybe 25% and build thru due diligence until I am at 100%. I do nothing less than 100% anymore.”
I’m not sure I would be that strict, and only pursue things that promise 100%, but I’ll
be much more prudent when assessing the risk/reward ratio in the future.
Of course, some opportunities do work out, lead to great client relationships and contracts,
and yield a profit.
I’m simply saying, before you start measuring the drapes for your new Executive office, take
a deep breath, ask yourself “what are the odds/probabilities” of this actually happening,
and then go about your regular business.
I think this little exercise will help us all approach each opportunity with a little more
calm, wisdom and of course, reasonable optimism.
(if you have had similar experiences, and have come up with insights, strategies, or
ideas, I would love to hear from you)
